Monday Macro – H1 2023 in rearview and thoughts on H2

The first half of 2023 was not bad, all things considered, but there’s plenty to watch out for in the second half including the costs of Higher for Longer, and why bonds might become more attractive

The chart below shows returns from major indices in the first half of 2023. I think it tells a remarkable story, all things considered. Bearish types like me thought we’d have a bloodbath as the economies slipped into recession and earnings fell but in fact most major developed world indices – and plenty of developing world ones as well – pushed ahead.

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