Monday Macro – the UK in 18 charts

A quick spin through the charts that map out the UK’s economic situation. Plus a truly worrying chart that shows how traditional energy stocks have absolutely thrashed renewable stocks.

• more Daily Shot charts, this time focused on the UK

• the mainstream narrative about the UK economy is grim, especially from the BoE in 2024

• the numbers suggest that consumer and business confidence isn’t that bad in fact

• the housing market looks in decent shape

• as does the labour market

• but prices and wages are still rising well above the long-term average

• we have a UK inflation problem again

• real rates are actually negative in the UK as opposed to Europe and the US

• that implies either that rates need to rise further or

• we should expect a sharp deflationary slowdown in 2024

• 2024 BoE forecasts are grim, with near zero growth through to 2025 and rising unemployment

• We finish with a terrible chart showing how old energy stocks have trounced new energy-renewable stocks

• It’s bad news for the planet if this is an investment signal!